Boycotting a Referendum is Suicide
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Abstention is suicide in an election. But, because the Honduran Congress has declared Sunday’s referendum illegal, no one will vote except Mel Zelaya’s supporters. Only “yes” votes will be registered, guaranteeing an apparent victory for Mel’s reelection proposal.
This already happened a few years ago in Caracas. The opposition boycotted the Congressional vote because Hugo Chavez didn’t play fairly. The result: a 100% Chavista legislature! Although the referendum isn’t deciding something as momentous as seats in the legislature, I fear the perverse logic behind such a stance plays directly into the hands of Chavez.
Chavez’s favorite tactic is double. He twists the meaning of the words the opposition might use against him, pre-empting their responses, and then pushes them into a position where the most logical defense is actually a suicidal trap. I fear what Zelaya, Ortega, Evo Morales, Fidel and Chavez will be saying on Monday. An evil choir of truth-mangling autocrats will sing victory regardless of whatever happens at the polls.
I would prefer the Honduran Congress to launch a massive campaign to get EVERY Honduran to vote. Most would vote NO, and Mel would lose by a landslide! Abstention is suicide in an election.
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I disagree this time, Aaron. To not vote will mean a very low turnout in my opinion. And then it won't be valid. There is some law I can't recall about how the referendum must have a certain percentage of voters in order to be valid. Thus the call for absention. And you may have seen a heavy downpour is expected all day across all of the country tomorrow. It's as if God is adding his help to calm the situation. Protestors will have a hard time in heavy rain. Supposedly Zelaya has more support in the mts and countryside where the rains will hinder more voters.
I hope you're right Laurie.
But remember Chávez's successful tactics in Venezuela, where the truth is whatever Chávez is saying at the moment. He used the abstention of Congress at a key election to eliminate his enemies. Turnout is always very low at Honduran elections. Mel, Chavez, Fidel, Ortega, and Evo will declare victory in chorus, no matter what the truth is.
When Chávez was forced to concede defeat two referendums ago in Venezuela, he refused to say by how much he had lost. He said the opposition's victory was a victory of excrement. He then proceeded to set up another referendum, in which he forbade the opposition show their commercials until after 1 in the morning. He won the second referendum.
Chavez is not a normal person, and neither is Mel anymore. They have been so deluded by their paranoia, and their Stalinist tactics, that they believe their own lies now. They don't believe in truth. They use their opposition's belief in truth against them.
Have you read 1984 and Animal Farm? George Orwell, who wrote them, was well acquainted with the politics of the left. He himself was a socialist democrat who became disenchanted with the Soviets. Those books, although unpleasant, show exactly the same tactics Chávez is using, tactics that came from Stalin.
If Mel didn't have Chávez behind him, I wouldn't feel so uneasy about the referendum.
But I repeat, I hope you are right. I hope Congress is right. But I prefer a democratic vote, because it would silence the hypocrites who say the opposition is afraid of democracy, and to let the people decide.
If I were in Honduras, I wouldn't vote tomorrow either, because I'd be breaking the law. I just think that in Venezuela this tactic has already backfired, and I fear that it would also backfire in Honduras.
I agree with you, Aaron. All these people recommending not to vote worries me greatly. Even before that we've talked to many people who have said they won't vote just because they believe the election is already rigged anyway.
On the contrary, to vote for a no is suicidal when the vote is no secret, and a crazy mob can beat you to death, and become a registered enemy of the government.
In this case, when its a question of yes or no, it's wiser to abstain vote when the pseudo-poll is obviously beeing manipulated.
Oh, yikes! Well, so much for democracy in Honduras.
Laurie, regarding low turnout, Liz posted on Facebook that they have already collected more votes/signatures than there were votes for both presidential candidates in the primary elections!
Aaron, continue to make your voice heard! Even if we disagree at times. Fundementally we agree that regime change is best for Honduras. And yes, I read Orwell's books over 20 years ago. Before 1984 (lol). And I understand Orwellian politics a bit.
Thanks Laurie. Our disagreement is now moot; who expected the military to remove Mel from power!
I fear the situation is considerably worse now, and unless God saves us by a miracle, Zelaya will soon return to power, much, much, stronger and full of Chávez than before.
Please forgive me if I implied you hadn't read Orwell…I imagined you would have read them, and be familiar with the language and characters in them.
[...] It seems the Congress and the Supreme Court thought they could convince Zelaya to relent, but when he plowed on, they changed strategy. Saturday, when Zelaya publicly stated that only God and the Virgin of Suyapa could stop the referendum, Congress and the Supreme Court declared the survey illegal again, and asked the people not to vote. [...]