Negotiations begin today between deposed President Manuel Zelaya and a delegation from the new government in Honduras. Oscar Arias has said that when conversations begin, stances will soften and both side will need to retract a little.

In classical Chávez style, Zelaya used, on his enemies, the words that would fit him perfectly. When Zelaya landed in Costa Rica, he condemned to Costa Rican Government for even considering receiving the “criminal” Micheletti, who he said has committed crimes against international law. Let’s see if the media follow his lead.

On the other hand, Nicaragua has denied the use of its airspace, saying that the plane that had originally carried Zelaya to Costa Rica on June 28, had not asked permission to cross it. This only reveals Nicaraguan president Ortega is afraid of something, who knows what.

Micheletti is considering whether he will attend, fearing arrest in Costa Rica. He has chosen a delegation to represent him in San Jose, but has not decided whether he will accompany them in person.

Possible outcomes include, in order of my preference:

1. That elections in Honduras be held early
2. That Zelaya return as a Honduran citizen, but with amnesty
3. That Zelaya not return, and evade Honduran justice.
4. That the president of the Supreme Court assume the presidency
5. The restoration of Zelaya with limited powers, barring him from modifying the constitution, and amnesty for the new governent.
6. That Zelaya is arrested in Honduras
7. That Micheletti is arrested in Costa Rica (Zelaya and Hugo’s favorite scenario)

Image by Bart, used with a Creative Commons license