Not that I want to belittle the political crisis, but the last time we went to the World Cup, Honduras had just emerged from dictatorship with a brand new constitution. This time we are emerging from the greatest threat to that constitution in its history…with another reason to celebrate too.
Most politicians in the Western hemisphere are celebrating Roberto Micheletti and Manuel Zelaya’s decision to sign the Guaymuras Accord. The key point of it is allowing the Honduran congress, with the supervision of the Supreme Court, to decide whether or not Zelaya is to be reinstated. But why are the left celebrating? Congress almost unanimously voted to depose Zelaya in June. It’s very premature to say Zelaya will be restored, unless the news aren’t telling the whole story.
Even in the Liberal party, the party that put Zelaya in power, most congressional deputees are against Zelaya’s restitution. The opposition party, the National party, is unanimous against him. In order for Zelaya to be restored, he would have to convince about 80% of congress or buy them. La Gringa wrote yesterday in her blog that the National Party is abstaining the vote, which to me is monumentally stupid. But even should they abstain, probability is against Zelaya’s return. Holed up in the Brazilian embassy, he simply doesn’t have the votes, or even something to offer the congressional deputees. Why is everyone celebrating?
But, there are two reasons to celebrate, the first is that the OAS, the United States, the European Union, France, Costa Rica and Panama have said they will now recognize the outcome of the November 29 elections. That is enough to throw the house out the window for joy, as we say in Latin America. The second is related: Chavez failed in making Honduras a satellite of his Bolivarian Socialist Revolution.
Chávez is probably having a very bad day. Yesterday he received letters from members of the US congress telling him they are proposing Venezuela be added to the “state sponsors of terrorism” list. His tirade against them is one of his most acerbic to date:
“¡Maldito imperio, mil veces maldito, algún día se hundirá en la historia negra! … ¡Te maldigo mil veces imperio yanqui!, no me importan nada los planes que tenga para conmigo”
“Accursed empire, a thousand times accursed, some day it wil sink into dark history! I curse you a thousand times Yankee empire, I don’t care anything for the plans it has against me”
As if that weren’t enough, Colombia and the US signed an agreement which gives them access to seven military bases in Colombia. I haven’t read a reaction from Chávez to this. He is probably brooding his anger, another explosion would only further damage his already severely weakened image in the world stage.
In Nicaragua, after their office of constitutional affairs, in a ridiculously transparent act of corruption, paved the way for indefinite reelection for ex-dictator Daniel Ortega, the opposition magistrates of the Nicaraguan supreme court have pronounced themselves against this. Oops. Too soon to celebrate, Chávez.
And then Honduras celebrates a “victory”. This is very bitter for Chávez, because his investment in Zelaya was not altruistic. He had much to gain in having an ally in Honduras, but now even in the remote chance that Zelaya would be restored, he would have to give up power in less than two months, and be replaced, according to current polls, by a much more capitalist Pepe Lobo.
As for me, even when the elections are recognized and Honduras returns to normal, the whole crisis has a very sour taste. I hope our flirt with disaster will shake up all the “oligarchy”, or better said the kleptocracy, that has continually robbed us. The prolonged rape of the people that the political elite, both left and right, has sustained in Honduras is far worse than the most monstrous imaginings of the wickedest pornographic movie director.
I have more faith in socialism than in people like Zelaya and Chávez, or even, –gasp–, presidential candidates Pepe Lobo and Elvin Santos. I have slightly more faith in capitalism, that in its greed, at least thrives on freedom. But it will be time for celebration only when corruption and ignorance are defeated in Honduras.
Ummm, somebody please give Microsoft a beginner’s course in marketing! In order to promote the launch of Windows 7, in Japan, Burger King is offering a 7-patty version of its venerable Whopper. At a whopping 2120 calories, this is all the nourishment a person would need for an entire day. The price, 777 yen.
Once again, interim president Roberto Micheletti offered to resign if Manuel Zelaya would also resign his aspirations. Then the country would be ruled by a unity government until elections are held and a new president takes office. Once again Zelaya rejected it.
Why? What could Zelaya hope to accomplish in two months and a half in office?
Image: El Heraldo
Manuel Zelaya received Micheletti’s negotiators again, after vowing not to continue with talks unless it was to sign his restitution. This is exactly the surrealistic unreliability that makes this crisis so tiring, and so circus-like, (circense in Spanish). As the socialists complain, the only result of this is that the negotiations will take longer, giving time for the election to proceed, and giving the illusion of progress.
This is fine with me, but mentally exhausting. The alternative is more insurrection, which would cost Zelaya what remains of Clinton and Obama’s support for him.
Image: El Heraldo
Manuel Zelaya has called Micheletti’s proposals insulting and has vowed to refuse to return to the negotiating table if it is not to sign his restitution to office. The Arias plan, and it’s major flaw, is directly responsible for this.
The flaw in the Arias plan is not small. It isn’t a cosmetic detail that could be smoothed away with talk. It is foundational. Arias was not drafting a document to mediate, but to mandate. The first article states that Zelaya is to be reinstated. In this Arias revealed he had never read the Honduran constitution, a conclusion he later confirmed months after the crisis had begun.
The constitution forbids an ex-president from regaining office. In order to reinstate Zelaya to office, Micheletti would have to break the constitution, which would almost beg for a constitutional assembly to rewrite it. Victory for Zelaya. Needless to say, things are back to the beginning.
Micheletti will go forward with the election, and Zelaya will try to make as much trouble for him as possible. In the meantime, the Honduran economy bleeds 52 million dollars a day, more than 6 billion dollars since June 28.
All’s fair in love and war 
Thanks to Fake Steve for blogging this.
Stalemate
Both Roberto Micheletti and Manuel Zelaya have declined to including a general amnesty clause in the Guaymuras agreements, as they both claim to have committed no crime. But this makes it much more difficult to reinstate Zelaya, who has 18 charges against him in Honduran courts. Zelaya claims he is still president, and that Micheletti has usurped power, and thus, his restitution would be a restitution in practice only, but that legally, he has never ceased being president during the entire time. The Supreme Court would not agree with this, of course, and neither do the US congressional committee that analyzed Zelaya’s removal from office and declared that it was legal, nor the UN consultant whose memo reached a similar conclusion, but has been rapidly hushed up.
Both sides claim progress, but the stalemate continues. Nevertheless, both sides are talking to each other directly, which is an enormous improvement. Rumor mills have suggested that Zelaya would go into exile in Spain, and that Micheletti would resign, to allow a unity government to rule Honduras without the intervention of either, until the a new president is elected and takes office. Time is running out. The election is in 40 days.
What!
If you go to the Google web site with the new suggest options turned on, and type “what!” with the exclamation point, this is the result you get…notice the last phrase!
Honduras just beat El Salvador 1-0 and the US tied with Costa Rica, which means Costa Rica will have to fight with the 4th place of the South American Conference, (I think), and means that Honduras has classified automatically for the World Cup!
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