Too Soon to Celebrate?
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Most politicians in the Western hemisphere are celebrating Roberto Micheletti and Manuel Zelaya’s decision to sign the Guaymuras Accord. The key point of it is allowing the Honduran congress, with the supervision of the Supreme Court, to decide whether or not Zelaya is to be reinstated. But why are the left celebrating? Congress almost unanimously voted to depose Zelaya in June. It’s very premature to say Zelaya will be restored, unless the news aren’t telling the whole story.
Even in the Liberal party, the party that put Zelaya in power, most congressional deputees are against Zelaya’s restitution. The opposition party, the National party, is unanimous against him. In order for Zelaya to be restored, he would have to convince about 80% of congress or buy them. La Gringa wrote yesterday in her blog that the National Party is abstaining the vote, which to me is monumentally stupid. But even should they abstain, probability is against Zelaya’s return. Holed up in the Brazilian embassy, he simply doesn’t have the votes, or even something to offer the congressional deputees. Why is everyone celebrating?
But, there are two reasons to celebrate, the first is that the OAS, the United States, the European Union, France, Costa Rica and Panama have said they will now recognize the outcome of the November 29 elections. That is enough to throw the house out the window for joy, as we say in Latin America. The second is related: Chavez failed in making Honduras a satellite of his Bolivarian Socialist Revolution.
Chávez is probably having a very bad day. Yesterday he received letters from members of the US congress telling him they are proposing Venezuela be added to the “state sponsors of terrorism” list. His tirade against them is one of his most acerbic to date:
“¡Maldito imperio, mil veces maldito, algún día se hundirá en la historia negra! … ¡Te maldigo mil veces imperio yanqui!, no me importan nada los planes que tenga para conmigo”
“Accursed empire, a thousand times accursed, some day it wil sink into dark history! I curse you a thousand times Yankee empire, I don’t care anything for the plans it has against me”
As if that weren’t enough, Colombia and the US signed an agreement which gives them access to seven military bases in Colombia. I haven’t read a reaction from Chávez to this. He is probably brooding his anger, another explosion would only further damage his already severely weakened image in the world stage.
In Nicaragua, after their office of constitutional affairs, in a ridiculously transparent act of corruption, paved the way for indefinite reelection for ex-dictator Daniel Ortega, the opposition magistrates of the Nicaraguan supreme court have pronounced themselves against this. Oops. Too soon to celebrate, Chávez.
And then Honduras celebrates a “victory”. This is very bitter for Chávez, because his investment in Zelaya was not altruistic. He had much to gain in having an ally in Honduras, but now even in the remote chance that Zelaya would be restored, he would have to give up power in less than two months, and be replaced, according to current polls, by a much more capitalist Pepe Lobo.
As for me, even when the elections are recognized and Honduras returns to normal, the whole crisis has a very sour taste. I hope our flirt with disaster will shake up all the “oligarchy”, or better said the kleptocracy, that has continually robbed us. The prolonged rape of the people that the political elite, both left and right, has sustained in Honduras is far worse than the most monstrous imaginings of the wickedest pornographic movie director.
I have more faith in socialism than in people like Zelaya and Chávez, or even, –gasp–, presidential candidates Pepe Lobo and Elvin Santos. I have slightly more faith in capitalism, that in its greed, at least thrives on freedom. But it will be time for celebration only when corruption and ignorance are defeated in Honduras.
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I suspect you will find that the various countries will recognise the elections ONLY if Zelaya is reinstated first.
There is a big difference!
Pete, I think there are many countries that would like to recognize the Honduran elections but are afraid of trespassing the US backyard. (I apologize to the Hondurans but I wanted to be honest here.)
President Obama, like former President Clinton, has shown that he could break agreements without much thought about the other party. Going against his position could mean lost of trade. Lost of trade could bring down many governments.
Aaron, please be careful. Corruption is recurring so you might not be able to celebrate for the rest of your life.
I think corruption caused by greedy people is not a big threat. The most dangerous is corruption caused by misguided good people.
In capitalism, misguided regulators lead to monopolies which could legally take away your freedom. Misguided socialists gave birth to communism and we know what that is.
Well, if Latin America were freed of corruption, we would almost immediately emerge from poverty and a generation or two after, given the right educational reform, from ignorance.
¿How to do it? Not through socialist government. I think that a systemic reform is sorely needed to sweep away the corruption in Latin American governments. But imperatively, we need to defeat the Narcos. Even more than politicians, they are the ones with the most to gain from corruption and the most to lose from justice.
How to defeat the Narcos…economic warfare, not conventional warfare. Economic warfare would work for government corruption too, but the IMF and World Bank don’t care if a country is corrupt as long as they can make money off them. Should they want to, which they don’t, they could force every Latin American government to clean up.
Aaron, from what I see so far, Honduras is actually on the way to defeating most types of corruption.
Most types of corruption are caused by breaking rules. Therefore, if the people of Honduras know the rules and support those who uphold the rules, you can fix most types of corruption.
I know of another country with corruption problems. The people always complain about corruption but they never really supported the officers when they tried to tackle corruption.
Without help from the people, the officers are on their own. Those officers have families too so they don’t want to take risks. You probably know what I’m saying.
The other types of corruption are more dangerous but I don’t think you can do much with them. Even the US couldn’t find a way to deal with them yet.
Aaron, I would like to add something about the IMF and the world bank. Be careful when dealing with them.
After the 1997 crisis, Asian countries needed to borrow money from them. These misguided capitalists imposed very strong restructuring on these countries. The result is the destruction of the middle class, turning them poor.
Demagogues took advantage of the situation, blamed the rich, and promised tons of handouts. Misguided socialists joined their hands and the demagogues took power with an overwhelming majority.
Hand outs for the poor strained the rich and the already small middle class. Complaints were shot down as words of the greedy or even worse, undemocratic.
In the old days, the rich helped the poor a lot due to religious beliefs. Now they hate each other.
Again, please be careful when dealing with them. Whether capitalism or socialism, there are conditions that must be met. Without the necessary conditions, the result is destruction.
I pray that Honduras will not meet the same fate.
They have enormous power, but their loans seem to achieve much less good than their stated intent. Perhaps I am too cynical in thinking that behind their stated intent there are the interests of the 1rst world countries on keeping the rest of the world poor.
Aaron, about the drugs, I really have to apologize to you as a US citizen. (I know I have tons of things to apologize to Hondurans.)
The US used the wrong tactics during the war on drugs, affecting the rights and privacy of the citizens. Of course, the citizens resisted. However, the resistance caused the entire anti-drug policy to be stalled. Now, the US is a big drug market. As long as there is demand, there will always be supply.
Honduras is currently a drug transit country. However, without proper coordination with the US and reforms to prevent social distress, Honduras might turn into a drug market.
I saw the tragedy happened to countries in SE Asia. I lived in one of those countries and saw the huge blood bath because the US pressured those drug transit countries to fight.
When I got back to the US, I was so furious to see no progress here. Then, I became speechless when I heard those countries are now drug markets.
Another tragedy is, when those SE Asian countries toughen their laws to fight drugs, they got hounded by human right groups, some which are based in the US.
My suggestion is for Hondurans to join hands with Hispanic political groups in the US. Hispanics are the fastest growing group in the US so they are being courted by both political parties.
You will never kill the Narcos. You will remove a narco and another will take his place. The only way to defeat drugs is if from a Milagro! The demand has to be drastically reduced.
Allen, when chastising former presidents, don’t forget about ‘ol G.W. Bush, you seemed to skipped right over him when talking about breaking agreements. I don’t believe it was accidental…we could go on all day about agreements(laws) he has broken…
http://www.afterdowningstreet.org/?q=node/5769
Drugs–have been a part of culture as long as there has been culture (remember, caffeine is a drug too)…in my opinion, the way to stop the Narcos here (in Hon), is to decriminalize it in the US and drive the prices down–even better, have the USgovernment regulate and tax (like alcohol and tobacco) them. As of now, drugs you may deem as “hard” are illegal. But where is the line drawn? why is alcohol legal, but not marijuana? If the Morman church were running our country then caffeine would be illegal…legalize/decriminalize, regulate, tax, and the Narcos go away.
http://www.cedro-uva.org/lib/reinarman.dutch.html
Alan,
“I think corruption caused by greedy people is not a big threat. The most dangerous is corruption caused by misguided good people.”
…being misguided is not corruption, but being greedy and puposefuly creating laws to feed the greed is corruption. Honduras is so far away from tackling the corruption.
Aaron—jajajaja!!Kleptocracy–jajajaja!!—-and I agree with your thoughts on the IMF and WB–they seem to just want to make money, not actually help. When I give money to a charity, I do not ask them to pay me back–I can afford to give them that money–nor do I put stipulations on how they will spend it..I do research to find out if they are truly helping, then I give it to them. I know the rich can afford it, yes, they will have to make some sacrifices (like an 6 bedroom house instead of a 12, for their family of 6)but in the end–”everyone does better when everyone does better”
Phill,
So do you mean that heroin should be decriminalized?
Phill, I think I wasn’t precise enough for you.
1) It wasn’t an accident. President Bush broke agreements with the international community as a whole. He did not break agreements made specifically to our ally. (I will not make Russia an ally yet.)
Our allies may not feel pressured if the US broke the Geneva Conventions but they will feel pressured if the US broke an agreement with Poland. Neutral countries will fear us even more.
Just to be straight, I did not vote for President Bush. He really made me wish presidents can not pardon each other.
2) It is possible to do something bad despite having good intentions. Therefore, it is possible for good people to corrupt things. I don’t restrict corruption to what’s defined by corruption law. After all, we know who wrote the law.
3) We have enough problems with labeling by tobacco companies. And that’s just tobacco alone. Can we, consumers, track all types of drugs and know the differences in their properties and risks? I will agree legalizing some drugs for medical purposes though.